USDCAD, 01/10/15 @07:58 GMT

Using my ICHIMOKU 4 Time-Frames Strategy, we now FREEZE on H4 Time-Frame of the pair and WAIT for a Bearish KUMO Breakout to happen.

If Bearish KUMO Breakout on USDCAD H4 TF doesn’t happen and instead we see a Bullish KUMO Breakout happening, we cancel the setup and restart evaluating the Market’s conditions starting from Monthly TF and looking for a BUY Setup.

If Bearish KUMO Breakout on H4 TF happens, we go down to H1 TF where we want to see 100% Bearish picture which means :

1. Price moving below the KUMO
2. Tenkan Sen moving above Price going down
3. Kijun Sen moving above Price and above Tenkan Sen going Down
4. Chikou Span moving below past price action and below past KUMO going Down
5. Bearish KUMO Sloping Downwards.

When we see 100% Bearish picture on H1 Time-Frame, we go down to M30 Time-Frame where we’ll WAIT for a proper UPward Correction to happen so we can enter Short (SELL) from M30 TF after the correction finishes, if ALL our SELL Criteria are met.

On the 4th Time-Frame which is M30 TF :

1. We WAIT to see a bullish M30 Candlestick closing above Tenkan Sen, followed by Bullish Candlesticks.
2. After we are sure that the Correction has started, we draw FIBONACCI Retracement Tool on the last Downward ACTIVE Wave and we place a mark on our chart for the 50.0 FIB Level. Then we remove the FIB Tool from our chart. We want the UPward Correction to reach or even exceed the 50.0 FIB Level in order to consider it adequate. There are cases when corrections may go only up to the 38.2 FIB Level. That’s OK as long as it has a minor depth instead of just being a shallow zig-zag. On the other hand, if the UPward correction goes as high as making a Bullish KUMO Breakout on H4 TF, we consider the setup cancelled.
3. We “follow” the Price/Tenkan Sen Cross from M30 up to H1 or even up to H4 TF if it goes there. We WAIT for the price to make a Bearish candlestick on the HIGHEST TF where we just had a Bullish Price/Tenkan Sen Cross. When we see a strong Bearish Candlestick on that TF, we go down to M30 TF looking to Enter.
4. Before we SELL from M30 Time-Frame, we make sure the following Criteria are ALL met. If ONE is not met, we STAY OUT and WAIT :

  • Bearish Candlestick closing below Tenkan Sen
  • Tenkan Sen sloping downwards
  • Bearish Candlestick closing below KIJUN Sen
  • Tenkan Sen crossing below Kijun Sen
  • Kijun Sen sloping DOWNwards
  • Chikou Span having crossed below past price action going DOWN
  • The Edge of the leading KUMO being Bearish either after a bearish Senkou Span A/B Cross or being clearly Bearish with Lower Border being sharp pointing downwards and Upper Border curved/sloping downwards.
  • We want to see a fresh strong Bearish KUMO Breakout on M5 Time-Frame, validated by Chikou Span which must go below past price action and below past KUMO
  • Once we enter SHORT, we’ll place our SL above the last Kijun Sen Plateau on M30 TF – ideally we may place our SL above the KUMO- and TRAIL it a few pips above each new Kijun Sen plateau. Our TP Target can be placed at 1.2816 Price Level. Because USDCAD is a pair with extreme fluctuations in its idiosyncrasy, we have two options regarding our Trade Management :

    1. We STAY IN as M30 Candlesticks close below Tenkan Sen and EXIT when a bullish candlestick closes above it…….OR…..
    2. We STAY IN as Kijun Sen goes down on M30 TF and EXIT when a Bullish candlestick closes above BOTH Tenkan Sen and Kijun Sen with BOTH TS and KS sloping UP.

    Trade SETUP may not mature before Monday, 5th of October 2015. Be patient.

    Happy pips!


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